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中国经济该如何应对?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月17日 01:01:02
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(另)(一)(方)(面)(,像)(阿)(根)(廷)(、土)(耳)(其)(、巴)(西)(等)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(,经)(济)(结)(构)(问)(题)(比)(较)(严)(重)(,而)(且)(外)(储)(数)(量)(又)(不)(多)(。在)(应)(对)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(冲)(击)(之)(时)(,手)(中)(也)(没)(有)(几)(张)(牌)(可)(以)(应)(对)(,也)(只)(能)(通)(过)(“绝)(望)(式)(加)(息)(”来)(暂)(时)(避)(免)(本)(国)(货)(币)(的)(贬)(值)(。但)(是)(本)(来)(国)(内)(实)(体)(经)(济)(早)(就)(已)(经)(不)(行)(了)(,如)(果)(再)(加)(息)(结)(果)(会)(更)(糟)(糕)(。
实)(际)(上)(,就)(在)(美)(联)(储)(6月)(中)(旬)(将)(要)(加)(息)(之)(前)(,我)(国)(央)(行)(于)(6月)(6日)(提)(前)(做)(出)(了)(一)(些)(反)(映)(,就)(是)(通)(过)(MLF(中)(期)(借)(贷)(便)(利)(),向)(市)(场)(投)(放)(4630亿)(元)(,若)(是)(除)(去)(当)(日)(到)(期)(量)(,当)(天)(向)(市)(场)(净)(投)(放)(2035亿)(元)(,如)(此)(一)(来)(,可)(以)(赶)(在)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(之)(前)(,暂)(解)(国)(内)(流)(动)(性)(紧)(张)(问)(题)(,避)(免)(国)(内)(因)(资)(金)(流)(出)(,导)(致)(出)(现)(“钱)(荒)(”的)(现)(象)(。
现)(在)(问)(题)(来)(了)(,面)(对)(美)(联)(储)(的)(加)(息)(和)(缩)(表)(,美)(元)(升)(值)(和)(美)(债)(利)(率)(上)(升)(,全)(球)(各)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(都)(“伤)(透)(脑)(筋)(”,而)(在)(这)(种)(情)(况)(下)(,作)(为)(世)(界)(第)(二)(大)(经)(济)(体)(的)(中)(国)(,我)(们)(又)(该)(如)(何)(面)(对)(呢)(?
首)(先)(,如)(果)(本)(周)(四)((14日)()美)(联)(储)(宣)(布)(再)(次)(加)(息)(,我)(国)(央)(行)(很)(可)(能)(在)(第)(一)(时)(间)(在)(公)(开)(市)(场)(中)(上)(调)(MLF或)(者)(逆)(回)(购)(的)(利)(率)(。此)(举)(有)(两)(个)(目)(标)(,一)(是)(可)(引)(导)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(走)(高)(,避)(免)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(出)(现)(贬)(值)(。
另)(一)(个)(,提)(高)(中)(短)(期)(的)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(,可)(以)(进)(一)(步)(给)(金)(融)(业)(去)(杠)(杆)(。鉴)(于)(4月)(底)(央)(行)(刚)(刚)(降)(准)(,尚)(需)(一)(个)(观)(察)(周)(期)(,而)(且)(6月)(初)(已)(经)(释)(放)(了)(2035亿)(元)(的)(增)(量)(资)(金)(。所)(以)(,上)(半)(年)(降)(准)(概)(率)(很)(小)(。
再)(者)(,对)(于)(中)(国)(经)(济)(来)(说)(,是)(需)(要)(加)(快)(调)(整)(经)(济)(结)(构)(步)(伐)(,由)(“促)(外)(需)(”转)(向)(“扩)(内)(需)(”。由)(原)(来)(依)(赖)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(+出)(口)(模)(式)(,逐)(步)(转)(向)(启)(动)(民)(间)(投)(资)(和)(消)(费)(来)(拉)(动)(经)(济)(增)(长)(。如)(果)(中)(国)(经)(济)(快)(速)(转)(型)(成)(功)(,那)(么)(经)(济)(自)(身)(抵)(御)(各)(种)(外)(力)(冲)(击)(的)(能)(力)(就)(会)(加)(强)(。
最)(后)(,进)(一)(步)(深)(化)(房)(地)(产)(“降)(杠)(杆)(,控)(风)(险)(”,避)(免)(下)(半)(年)(国)(内)(房)(价)(出)(现)(大)(起)(大)(落)(。历)(史)(很)(多)(经)(验)(都)(表)(明)(,美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(和)(缩)(表)(,会)(导)(致)(大)(量)(资)(金)(流)(出)(,新)(兴)(经)(济)(市)(场)(房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(破)(裂)(,就)(会)(发)(生)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(风)(险)(。
所)(以)(,下)(半)(年)(在)(一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(不)(变)(,二)(线)(城)(市)(人)(才)(引)(进)(战)(略)(结)(束)(,还)(应)(将)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(逐)(步)(蔓)(延)(至)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,通)(过)(实)(行)(限)(购)(和)(限)(售)(政)(策)(,可)(以)(暂)(时)(避)(免)(房)(价)(发)(生)(大)(起)(大)(落)(。只)(要)(国)(内)(不)(发)(生)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(风)(险)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(就)(有)(能)(力)(抵)(御)(外)(力)(冲)(击)(。
美)(联)(储)(6月)(份)(要)(加)(息)(和)(缩)(表)(,让)(各)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(感)(到)(恐)(慌)(,纷)(纷)(拿)(出)(加)(息)(举)(措)(来)(应)(对)(本)(币)(贬)(值)(,但)(是)(加)(息)(是)(把)(双)(刃)(剑)(,频)(繁)(加)(息)(只)(能)(使)(本)(国)(的)(经)(济)(更)(糟)(糕)(,资)(产)(泡)(沫)(破)(裂)(进)(程)(加)(快)(。而)(对)(于)(中)(国)(来)(说)(,只)(是)(提)(高)(自)(身)(的)(经)(济)(质)(量)(,防)(控)(楼)(市)(泡)(沫)(的)(破)(裂)(,稳)(定)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(,这)(样)(才)(能)(抵)(御)(美)(联)(储)(的)(收)(缩)(货)(币)(的)(冲)(击)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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